Marcelo may call early elections as soon as next week
Political crisis: How did Portugal reach a likely scenario of early elections?
According to journalist Tomás Guerreiro, from the newspaper CONTACTO, Portugal is facing a political crisis.
With local elections scheduled for late September and early October, this year promises to be one of the most politically intense. Additionally, the presidential campaign will gain momentum in the second half of the year, with the election set for January 2026. Now, the question remains: will there also be legislative elections in 2025?
Portugal could face early elections if the motion of confidence presented by the Government next Wednesday is rejected by Parliament. Given this possibility, the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, has promised to act “as quickly as possible.”
With the country immersed in a political crisis, we present a summary of the most significant events of recent days and the upcoming steps:
Why is Portugal facing a political crisis?
The political crisis erupted when it was revealed that a company owned by Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, called Spinumviva, has been receiving a monthly payment of approximately €4,500 from Grupo Solverde, one of the largest business empires in Portugal’s gaming and hospitality industry. This arrangement continued while Montenegro led the PSD and served as Prime Minister.
According to Montenegro himself, Solverde paid Spinumviva for consultancy on projects related to data protection, an area in which he holds a postgraduate degree. The company was later transferred to the name of the Prime Minister’s wife and children, but the controversy had already been set in motion.
How did the political parties react?
Since the March 2024 legislative elections, Luís Montenegro’s government has been governing with a relative majority in Parliament. The Democratic Alliance (a PSD-CDS coalition) holds only 76 seats and took office with the reluctant support of the Socialist Party (PS) and Chega, which were pressured to ensure political stability.
However, revelations about Montenegro’s financial ties to Solverde have damaged his credibility. The Socialist Party (PS) requested the establishment of a Parliamentary Inquiry Committee, which would require Montenegro’s wife and children to testify before Parliament. The Communist Party (PCP), backed by Livre, also presented a motion of censure against the Government last Wednesday, though it had no material consequences.
Will the country have early elections?
The PCP’s motion of censure, titled “Halting the deterioration of the national situation, for an alternative policy of progress and development,” was rejected.
- PS and Chega abstained,
- PCP, BE, Livre, and PAN voted in favor,
- PSD, CDS-PP, and IL voted against.
During the debate, Luís Montenegro announced that he would submit a motion of confidence to Parliament next Tuesday to reaffirm his Government’s legitimacy. However, PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos has already stated that his party will vote against the motion, a stance also announced by Chega. If the motion of confidence is rejected, Montenegro’s Government will lose its parliamentary legitimacy to continue in power.
What is the Government’s goal with the motion of confidence?
The motion of confidence, released by the Council of Ministers, challenges the opposition to clarify whether the Government has the conditions to govern.
“The repeated statements from PS leaders seem to reflect a determined effort to foster an artificial climate of constant suspicion and political wear,” states the document.
The Government claims that it has provided sufficient clarification, but acknowledges that this has not been enough to put an end to the controversy.
“Allowing the current situation to drag on would be contrary to the national interest. The Government cannot accept this,” the document concludes.
If the motion of confidence is rejected, the Government is likely to shift the blame for political instability onto PS and Chega, setting the stage for new elections.
What does the President of the Republic say?
On Wednesday night, after the motion of censure was voted down, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa admitted that early elections could take place in May if the motion of confidence is rejected. According to the President, the vote should take place next Wednesday.
Marcelo justified this scenario based on the “emphatic statements before and during the debate” on the motion of censure. However, he also said he is considering “all scenarios.” One possibility that has already been ruled out by the parties supporting the Government (PSD, CDS, and PPM) is the replacement of the Prime Minister.
“The parties that support the Government want to maintain the same leadership in the event of a new election,” Marcelo stated.
The President has announced that he will convene the parties and the Council of State to discuss the situation before making a final decision. However, the prospect of early elections was the most frequently mentioned outcome by Marcelo, who even cancelled his State visit to Estonia to remain in Portugal for the vote on the motion of confidence.
“If elections are held, the first possible date is between May 11 and May 18,” he declared.
After September, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa loses the power to dissolve Parliament, as the presidential elections will already be scheduled for January 2026.
Risk of three consecutive elections?
With local elections scheduled for late September and early October, Portugal could be heading into one of its most politically turbulent periods. The presidential election campaign will also be in full swing in the second half of the year, with the vote set for January 2026.
Now, the big question remains: Will there also be legislative elections in 2025?
You can read the original article, from journalist Tomás Guerreiro, from the newspaper CONTACTO HERE.
The image credits belong to Assembleia da República MANUEL DE ALMEIDA/LUSA © Créditos: LUSA
